Peter King won re-election in 2004 by 63%. He won in 2002 by 72%. This was supposed to be a safe Republican seat and an easy re-election.
According to a new poll(http://www.constituentdynamics.com/...) King leads by only 2% points, 48% to 46%. With that so close and with 8% undecided, Mejias is within striking distance. Undecides this late in the game usually side with the challenger. It's all going to come down to voter turnout.
(I'm rushing this and will clean up later)